Unusual Las Vegas Real Estate Market Forecast For 2020, Homes

Unusual Las Vegas Real Estate Market Forecast For 2020, Homes


Unusual Las Vegas real estate market forecast
for 2020, homes In order to make a Las Vegas real estate market
forecast for 2020 we have to take a look at a very unusual housing market in 2019. In this video we will discuss:
1: While the listing inventory has increased from the very tight levels of 2017-2018, it
is still too low for price drops in lower price ranges. The median price of single family houses gained
11.7% and 7.6% in 2017 and 2018, it only went up by about 3.3% in 2019. We shall explain why. 2: We will show a big discrepancy between
the number of active listings in the MLS that you can search at any time and the number
of active listings in MLS data that are used for the housing market reports and explain
why it happens. 3: Explain why the median price is not a very
good criteria to see if home prices have gained or not and show you a much better way. 4: Do a real estate market forecast for 2020. 5: We will discuss condo and townhomes markets
separately because they are totally different, while they are combined elsewhere. But we will discuss it in the next post. Quick statistics
As of December 28th we have 5,763 single family home listings which are not under contract. Of these, 79 are foreclosures and another
59 are short sales. 31,774 homes have sold so far in 2019, 542
were REO and 192 short sales. The median sales price of single family houses
in December 2019 was $314,000 and the price per square foot of all homes sold was $168
per square foot This graph shows active home listings versus
the unit sales. It is easy to see that while sales numbers
are similar to 2018, the listing inventory has increased substantially. However, if you have been paying attention,
there is a big discrepancy between the number of available or active listings in the table
where we showed 5,763 listings and the number of listings shown in the graph. The reason is that the number of active listings
varies throughout the month and the number that we gave you in the table is a snapshot
for one day. But, Realtor Associations use all listings
that have been active at some point in a month, and many get expired or withdrawn. This is the way that it has been done since
the beginning by Realtor Associations and that is how news organizations get their numbers. So we will use it because it makes perfect
sense, but as it comes to the number of searchable listings at a point in time, it is highly
misleading. If you want to see how many listings were
really available, say for the 17th of each month, we get far less listings and there
is a 1500 to 2000 unit discrepancy among the 2 methods. Increasing months of listing inventory
The best way to show supply and demand is by the months of listing inventory which is
calculated by the number of active listings divided by unit sales. The months of inventory increase substantially
in the fall and winter of 2019 before dropping back to 3.2 to 3.7 months after the spring
of 2019. While a 6 months’ worth of inventory is
considered normal, this low inventory level should have resulted in bigger gains. We will explain why it didn’t after the
statistics. The months of inventory for searchable listings
at any moment is about half a month less. Median price of Las Vegas homes
This graph shows the median price of single family houses and it hit $300,000 in the fall
of 2018 and has only gained about $15,000 or 5% in 18 months and 3.3% in 2019. The median price of homes is an OK criteria
to show market directions in lower price ranges but it only shows the median price of what
people are buying. However, it doesn’t really show how much
unit prices have appreciated or not. In Las Vegas high-rise condo market we showed
how it fails miserably when the number of data points are low. It is the price per square foot of units that
show how much home prices have gained or lost. As when one divides the accumulated price
of all units by square footage of all units the result is the price per square foot ratio. It is the lowest common denominator that all
homes sold have in common. Again, there is minimal price per square foot
appreciation from the fall of 2018. This table compares median price appreciation
with price per square foot appreciation in 2017 to 2019. Comparing price per square foot and median
price gain 2017 to 2019 The second set of data is a far more accurate
description of whether or not unit prices are going up or down than the median price
of what buyers are buying. And backed up by hundreds of CMAS which we
do every year. Conclusion:
We have no expertise when it comes to US or world economy and have no idea whether of
not a big recession is on the way or not. But, there is about 24 billion dollars of
large commercial properties currently under construction in the Valley which will undoubtedly
help our economy in the near future. Additionally, we know the Las Vegas real estate
market, and all we can do is to make a prediction based on the historical statistics. As we discussed. 3.2 to 3.6 months of listing inventory should
have led to much greater appreciation then 2.4% in 2019 and by extension in 2020 if the
number of active listings is similar to the last year. The reason for the low appreciation doesn’t
show up in the graphs. The main reason is that even though sales
number in 2019 are very similar to 2018 the number of active buyers have decreased. Many listen to forecasts of impending recession
and are waiting for significant price drops, which there is no sign of as of yet. A good friend of mine who is a property manager
and manages about 200 homes thinks that the Federal Government shut down of last year
has scared buyers away and it is to blame. Multiple offers have vanished and most listings,
including all our listings have sold with only one offer. In most cases after the first price drop. Given that listings have stayed on the market
much longer in 2019, buyers wait for a price drop before they make an offer. And lastly, this was an overview of the whole
Las Vegas housing market. It is actually very lively in some unexpected
sectors. Such as multimillion dollar luxury homes in
some of the best golf communities, especially in Henderson, such as Anthem Country Club,
or highly upgraded condos in North Las Vegas. Las Vegas real estate market forecast for
2020 The loan limit has been increased in 2020. FHA loan limit in 2020 is $322,000 and the
conventional mortgage limit is $484,350. These increases should help the market. As for our unusual Las Vegas real estate market
forecast for 2020 for homes, we are going to go out on a limb and predict higher price
gains in 2020 than the last year. How much higher? We shall know by March 2020. The only Las Vegas housing market that counts
is how your desired property has done in the past and that varies greatly with the neighborhood
and price range. If you want to buy or invest in Las Vegas
homes, condos or town-homes, please call us at 702-478-7800. You can find our contact info and web page
with the embedded video and video transcript in the video description. We are not going to insult your intelligence
by giving you direction on how to subscribe to our real estate channel. But if you like our market reports please
do subscribe. On behalf of The Saber Team, this is Karen
Saberzadeh of Realty One Group and www.lasvegas4us.com wishing you a great day.

One thought on “Unusual Las Vegas Real Estate Market Forecast For 2020, Homes

  1. It took a long time to make this video as given the listing inventory levels and sales numbers should have resulted in much higher price home gains as it did. So forecasting the Las Vegas housing market for 2020 became complicated, but we did our best. Don't look for any price drops any time soon as our home listings inventory is tight.

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