Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver | 2019 Full Year Round Up

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver | 2019 Full Year Round Up


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well, first of all, happy New Year, welcome to the roaring 20s. Yes, very exciting decade. I’m looking forward to
having a wonderful decade. I hope you are as well. Well, the numbers are in from Vancouver. Now, I’m gonna do a few things different. Obviously, I’m gonna show you January through December of 2019, I’ll compare it to
December of 2018 to 2019, but what I’m also gonna
do is I’m gonna show you the total number of sales
that have taken place in your marketplace
for the last five years and also show you the benchmark price for the last five years as well. And also I’ve got an announcement to make. I do these monthly. I’m going to stop doing
these market updates monthly. I’m gonna go to quarterly. Why? When I started these monthly
updates a few years ago the reason I did was I
started ’em because I wanted to show real estate
professionals, like yourself, how they could do market
updates for their market and expose it to their audience. Since then, we’ve had hundreds
and hundreds of people that are now doing that, so
you got that all figured out. Instead of me doing it
monthly, you do it monthly for your audience and I’m gonna go to quarterly for my audience. So anyway, let’s get started everybody. Here’s the deal, we look at January through the end of December. We got sales, we got active
listing, months of inventory, and your benchmark price right here. When you started, market
tough when we started. 1,103 sales. Remember you take the sales
divided into the active listings that shows you your months of inventory. Your months of inventory
determines the strength of you market in terms of price because it’s your supply and demand. Above six, buyers market. Four to six, blanaced. Below 4 is gonna be a seller’s market. Look at this. You started in a very weak market, strong buyer’s market, and
almost 10 months of inventory. So what happened? Our sales started to go up,
as they do in the Spring, went to 1,484 at 1,727, 1,829, and then look what happened in May, which was, by the way, you know almost the best months of the Spring, almost the best month
of the year at 2,638. Then June off 2,077. Then we did 2,557. July was better than June, a little bit uncommon in some markets. 2,231 in August, 2,333,
and then look at this, best month of the year, 2,858 in October. That’s unusual. Best months usually
happens out around here. That tells me your
market’s getting stronger. 2,500 and then we drop to 2,016, but this was substantially
stronger than 2018 in December, which I’ll
show you in just a minute. But look at this, you started
10 months of inventory then went to 7.8, 7.4, 7.8, and
then what started to happen? Look at here. We started to fall. We ended the year 4.3,
4.3, 4.3, a balanced market much stronger than where
started, so all good news. Okay, look at this. 2018 in December you did 1,072 sales. 2019 you did basically 2,000. You’re up by 88%, massive number. Your market has recovered so nicely, okay? From all of the stress testing, you know, foreign buyer tax, we can go
on and on and on, you know, vacancy tax that have been
put into your marketplace. But you’ve recovered very very nicely, so obviously people
want to be in Vancouver, which makes sense. Benchmark price, just
over a million, okay. 2018 right on a million, down by 3%. Down a little bit, but not a great change. And this is December over December. Okay, so let’s look at this. Here’s your months of inventory. If we go back 2017 we
started just above four, we ended at 3.5. 2018 we started right around four and we ended at 10. What about 2019? We started at 10 or just below 10, right? But we ended right here at 4.3. Look at how close we are to
what happened, okay, in 2017. So you can see the recovery of pricing of your marketplace right
here, very very nice. What about in the last five years? What this is, total sale that took place in the last five years in your market. 2015, 42,326, we started to go down, okay? Down by 5.6% to roughly 40,000. Down by 10% right here, okay? Down to 35,993 then down
by 36, 1% I should say, 31.6 to 24,000 and they were up by 3%. So you can see what’s going
on, it going down, down, down, and then all of sudden 2019 you went up. And this is what starts, it
starts by going up a little bit. It’s like here, it started by
going down a little bit, 5%, down a little bit more, and then boom! Now what’s happened, we’re going this way. So you can see what’s happening, your market is starting to recover. Now barring any interest rate increase or you know changes by the government then I think you’re gonna see a pretty decent year this year. What about price? So here’s your benchmark, 700, okay? Then we went up by 25%, okay, to 880. Then we went up by 12%, 987. Then we went up by almost
9% to just over a million, and then we ended down by 6.5%, okay, at just slightly right
around a million dollars. Now you look and you say, “Well, you know, “why would this come down?” Well, the reason it would
come own if we go back here and we have a look at this is because look where we started months of inventory. Your market was all buyers,
buyers, buyers, buyers until we got here when it
become a little more balanced. So that’s why your benchmark,
if you look at the average of the whole year, gets slightly weakened. So saying that we have some other slides, I’m not gonna go through
them, but I wanna show them to you because if you go to our blog you can download these slides. So I’ve showed you all
these, but then what we did is we took detached, showed
you the number of sales, townhouses number of sales,
apartments number of sales, and then we also started
moving the average price of detached for the last three years, as well as townhouses,
as well as apartments. So anyway, you go to the blog, you can download these slides, have a look at them, figure out what’s going on in your market. With my prediction to 2020? I think I’ve already told you. I think 2020 is gonna be just fine. I think your prices will probably start inching back up in 2020. I think your sales are going to be more than they were in 2019. I think you’re gonna see
a significant increase in sales actually. I’m gonna say that you’re
sale’ll probably be up by maybe 10, maybe 12%. That’s just a guess, but
that’s what I’m predicting. So anyway, I wish you an amazing 2020 and at the end of the
day everybody, remember, it’s a beautiful life, make it count.

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