Portland Real Estate Market Forecast 2019


So! What is happening right now in the
local Portland real estate market? Let’s talk about it Are we looking at a market
slowdown? Stalemate? Or an actual decline in the market right now? I think it’s gonna be a little bit hard to say especially in the first quarter of 2019. Because there’s just a lot going on. Right now, we’re looking at
global trade issues, we are looking at a shutdown in the government, As well as horrible stock market volatility. So, you combine those three factors and
there’s just a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. And I think that home
buyers especially are feeling that. Home sellers like your… if you have to sell
you have to sell. I see a lot of homes starting to come on the market as well as more conversations than we’ve had over the past thirty to sixty days. So you’re going to see more inventory hit the market, as well as more buyers coming
into the market. Although there’s just a lot of trepidation on buyers part and it’s yet to be seen. So the first three months of the year in the Portland market are going to be super interesting. Couple things. Number 1: Is last year we saw 5.6% appreciation in home prices in Portland. Especially in the first half of last year. The Portland real estate market was one
of the fastest growing real estate markets in the United States in the first half of the year. Experts that I’m hearing are talking about Portland actually being one of the slowest appreciating markets in the
first half of 2019, So what does that mean for home buyers and home sellers? Especially home sellers, they still have this notion that their home is worth probably (just to be completely honest with you) more than it actually is. Home prices were appreciating at
7, 8, 9% and in some pockets even more and so there’s this feeling in seller’s minds that they can still get, you know, “$X.” Whatever that dollar is. And the numbers and the reality and the overall sentiment in the market is typically showing something otherwise. Not always! But that’s what we’re seeing. And there’s just a lot of uncertainty so the first three months are going to be very tricky. What else? There’s a gap. I see a gap between buyers and sellers now price is one factor and we just
talked about that, but we’re also talking about concession. So concessions once you have a home buyer that’s written an offer that you have an accepted offer on the sale of the home, so everybody’s come to an agreement, you go through the inspection process and getting the buyer and the seller to
agree during that process, is, I believe, going to be more difficult in
2019. And the reason is, is just that gap. It’s the uncertainty. Buyers are
going to be very cautious. First of all coming into the market because of interest rates (we’ll talk about that in a minute) but they’re gonna be very cautious coming into the market because of
interest rates and when they finally make that decision, they’re gonna
be in the market and they’re still gonna be second-guessing themselves. They’re gonna be like. “oh my gosh is this really the right time?” “We’re just we’re still unsure although let’s dip our toe in the water and let’s see what happens.” So, they’re gonna dip their toe in the water they’re going to write an offer and then
they’re gonna get to that negotiating period in the contract and they’re
gonna freak out. They’re gonna find every reason under the sun why they should not move forward with that purchase. And if the seller gives them any reasons at all, they gone! And that is going to be a reality. I started to see that last year and I believe that in 2019 we are going to see even more of that. So, sellers. Talking to you specifically right now. You need to get your mindset in the
right place if you want to sell your home you’re going
to have to price it appropriately that is the key in real estate
first and foremost price your home appropriately take the the data that is
out there and use that to price your home appropriately take the advice of of
your real estate agent hopefully your agent has a good amount of experience
they have a track record of success and you can you can lean on that success as
you price your home so first and foremost price your home properly second
is get ready during that during that negotiation period during the inspection
and possibly during the appraisal as well I think that we could see some
appraisals start to come in a little bit low release more so in the past I don’t
think it’s going to be a widespread issue but occasionally it does happen
and I think it could happen a little bit more in 19 so get ready during that
inspection period that you’re gonna have to give a little bit more than you might
want to or that you might have had to if you sold your home in the past five
years because people typically sell their home every five to seven years
right so the last time the sellers sold their home there were in an upward trend
and they were in a really strong position and it was honestly it was just
easier to sell a home as a seller and they they just had a very strong strong
position during any of the negotiation periods so sellers number one is pricing
price for home appropriately and number two is get your mindset in the right
place that you’re gonna have to probably give a little bit more than what you
want if you need to sell your home if you don’t need to sell your home then
you know by all means just stay put it is still a good time to sell a home
though one factor that the sellers do have on their sides is is inventory
inventory is at about 2.8 percent we’re probably going to see that stay somewhat
somewhat the same those are the highest highest rates that we’ve seen in years
and it’s still well below a healthy normal market so inventory is still down
okay one last thing let’s let’s wrap this up
with interest what our interest rates going to do in 2019 on 2019 right now
were were over 5% and they’ve actually been they were they
were hire and they’ve been going down over the past three to four weeks so in
in the in 2019 we’re probably against the interest rates stay about five to
six percent now that’s a pretty wide gap and in all reality it’s probably gonna
hover between five to five and a half percent could it go higher at some point
in the year absolutely it is a reality of where we’re at right now one big
factor in in my confidence level of staying between five to five and a half
is the Fed is really soft in their position on on the prime rate and
because of that I believe that we’re gonna see more stability in interest
rates and we’re just not going to see this dramatic increase over 2019 will we
seen increase I believe so but it’s it’s not going to be dramatic so long-term
interest rates that historical average is probably about seven-and-a-half
percent somewhere right around there and right now they’re at five so so I know
people’s mindset is that oh my gosh interest rates are over five percent and
oh they’re pulling their hair out they’re freaking out come on people this
is still a really really good interest rate is your purchasing power down a
little bit because of the higher interest rate yes you should have bought
you know a couple of years ago the reality is it is what it is it’s still
healthy interest rate for for buyers and I don’t think it’s going to slow down
our market too much so I hope that you found this information helpful we will
continue to to bring value to you and give you the information that you need
to make an educated decision on your next move if we can be a resource and
you won’t have any specific questions you want to dive a little bit deeper or
find out the ultimate value of your home today and see if you’re in a position to
make a move one way or another please reach out to us on again I hope you
found this information valuable I hope that you have a fabulous day and until
next time true friends you

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