Fraser Valley Real Estate Board | May 2019 Market Stats


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins
here and the numbers are in for the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. So let’s talk about what’s going on. But here’s what I can say to you, the news is pretty good. We’re moving the right way. So let’s have a look at
some of these numbers. We looked at sales, we’re
looking at January through May. The number of sales,
we had 784 in January. We went to 782, went to 1221 in March, went to 1383 in April, and
1517 in the month of May, which means our sales were up roughly 10%, okay, in May over April. Now what about active listings? You can see we had 6,000. Went to 6,400, okay,
7,000, 78, almost 8,000. And now we are at 85 hundred. So what happened? Our inventory went up by
8.1%, our sales went up by 9.7 and that’s all good news, and here’s why. Because the strength of a market is determined by months of inventory. Which is the next one
we’re gonna talk about. Because if I take 5995,
the active listing, and I divide the amount
of sales, that tells me my months of inventory. How many months could we go if
we didn’t list another house? Now four to six is a balanced market, above six, generally
speaking, is going to be more of a sellers, or um, buyers market, below four is gonna be
more of a sellers market. So look at your month of
inventory, and this is all the good news, right here. We started the year at 7.6, buyers market, went to 6.5, buyers market. 5.7, we moved into a
balanced market, right? Good news. 5.7, balanced market. 5.6, balanced market. So what I love here,
is I see that the sales are all, percentage wise,
more than the listings that will cause this number
to start coming down. What about the last three years? 2017, you did twenty-seven
hundred sales in the month of May 2017, moving down to seventeen
hundred fifty-eight, okay. And now fifteen hundred and seventeen. So our sales obviously are down. Let’s look at our months of inventory, two years ago, 1.9, right? Crazy, crazy hot market.
You remember it, right? Then we went to 3.8 and then of course, well now, we went up to 5.6. However, even though it’s gone
up, what again encourages me is what’s been happening so far this year. We’re starting to move the right way. What about prices? We were 740 in May of 2017,
787, which would make sense ’cause months of inventory
was down, prices will go up. And of course, with months of inventory, have been in sort of above
six, into the buyer area that means our prices are
probably gonna go down, which they have, but I think
we’re gonna start to see prices balance out now, month to month for the next little while and possibly, we might even get down to
about four months of inventory as we move forward. So, let’s have a look at this. Now, I think this is
really cool to show buyers because, my theory is right now a lot of buyers out there,
in the Fraser Valley, they’re probably going “Well
is it a good time to buy?”, “Should I be waiting?”, right? “You know, the prices
seem a little bit weak.” “All the newspapers are
talking about what’s going on, and it’s not good”. And I’m going, no, no. This is the time to get off the fence. Here’s why it’s time to get off the fence. Because your months of
inventory is dropping and the trend line is
moving this way, right now. Which is very, very good. And by the way, your
prices are lower this year than they were last year. However, if you look at
most ten year periods, you’re going to see a rise in price, okay, especially in Vancouver,
especially in the Fraser Valley, especially in the big cities like Toronto because a lot of immigrants end up there. So, what’s happening, if I
take 2009, your price was four hundred thousand. Let me go forward ten years, which would bring us to 2018. We’re sitting at 786, right. Almost doubled, right,
in that period of time. Well let’s take another ten year period. Let’s take here, 2010, let’s go to 2019. Where we were 450, if we
double that, that will be nine hundred thousand, we’re 726. So we’re not quite there
because prices have come down. But what I’m saying, if
you’re talking to buyers, then what’s going to happen,
over a ten year period, you’re going to see a
substantial increase in price. Now, there’s going to be
periods, where your market goes up and up and up, right? Like this. And then there’s going
to be periods are here and they’re going to go down a little bit. Or it’s here and it
goes down a little bit. You know, it balances out. That’s, that’s okay.
That’s, that’s called, you know, real estate. The way real estate works. But what you wanna
do is be sharing valuable information with buyers
and sellers right now, especially the buyer and
showing them, this is the time to get off the fence. Why? Number one, our prices
are lower, which is good. The trend line in months
of inventory shows us we’re starting to move
down, we’re now into a balanced market, moving
more towards, what possibly could turn into a
stronger balance market or maybe even a sellers market. Who knows, right? But what we know, if we’re
in now in a balanced market, what do we know about our prices, right? They’re not going down. So they’re not going down,
and we’re probably not going to go back up there,
because we are recovering from all of the changes
that have taken place. Between stress testing, between
rate increases, come on, rates are actually down,
many banks have been lowering their rates. It is a
good time to be buying real estate in Vancouver
and the Fraser Valley. And I think you gotta take
that attitude and that philosophy with this type
of content, you gotta be taking it to buyers. And what I also know is
this, the day of the order taker in real estate is over. Come on, when the market was good, you could be an order taker, right? Hey, buyers were self motivated because if they didn’t put an offer
in, they weren’t gonna get it, there were gonna be multiple offers, right, that sort of thing. Hey, prices were going
up, all conversations with sellers were good. Well that’s not the case anymore. Now, when we go out,
we gotta take evidence, like this, we gotta sit down with buyers, we gotta sit down with
sellers, and we have to help them make the right decision. And in a lot of cases we
didn’t have to do as much of that in the past, but we
definitely have to do it now. And here’s what I know for sure. The coaching members that we
work with, that are killing it. I mean, killing it, this year, right? They’re killing it because they are getting out into the
market as sales people and they are helping people
make decisions that normally might not have made a decision. They’re not order takers,
they’re professional, skilled, sales people. So, I hope, I hope that
was helpful, just that conversation and I will
see you again next month. In the meantime, remember
everybody, it’s a beautiful life. Make it count.

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