EDMONTON REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE | NOVEMBER 2019 SUMMARY


Thank you for joining us for another
episode of Edmonton Real Estate Today! I am your host Leroy Warden and today our guests are Sheryl Stephens of RE/MAX Real Estate and Michael Brodrick the current
chair of the Real Estate Association of Edmonton. Sheryl, Michael welcome to our program. Thank you! Yeah so it’s good to see you guys so
let’s just jump right into it the Real Estate Association released
their stats here this morning so it’s hot off the press. They reported new
listings of 1,860 and approximately 1,100 sales and the inventory showed at 7,923
so for the current sellers they’re on the market today, what should these
numbers mean to them trying to sell their homes? Well I know when I look at
the whole city stats like that and you break down to the number of homes sold
and the number of listings on the market we’re looking at about 14% or actually
selling so I think it’s really important that the sellers when they’re
listing their homes they keep that in mind so they know actually how to position their home and then looking at it closer for them is right in their own community
because every community is gonna have a little different percentage of how many
are selling and the key would be to talk to your Realtor you know look at the
number of homes selling in their neighborhood, how to position themselves
and maybe see what the sales look like so they can actually make sure that
their home is comparable to those other ones to find the right price point. Right. I think it’s really important to remember that real estate is in fact hyperlocal we so
often use aggregate stats whether it’s the Realtors Association of Edmonton,
Canadian Estate Association. We have these aggregate stats you’ve got a city
of nearly a million people with all of these neighborhoods.
I think the aggregate stats often really don’t mean much. There’s more of a story
as you break that down further and further I think too this year we’ve been
talking about having stability in our market place it’s important that sellers
remember the market is still moving you know a property can’t be sold if it’s
not listed. People many times want to rip it off the market as soon as the snow flies. Well, buyers need something to buy all we taking it off isn’t always the right
answer. Yes. The entire sales that are happening right now is that more of a
seasonal thing? Because we’re looking at about 1,100 sales in comparison to what
has been happening on all year. That trend, is that something that you guys
feel that is happening because of us heading into Winter? Sales kind of
declining a bit or what are your feelings? I think you know part of it is
seasonal. I mean we typically when we look at what’s happening with with
prices, that’s been slightly off of what it normally is but the general
market trend continues to be the same. We are busier in the Spring. We quiet a
little bit then we you know and get in the Summer it gets a little bit quieter,
that we getting speeds up a little more at the end and we can we taper off so
that general market trend seems to be the same. I think something that’s been
happening this year generally that’s affecting the market is federal policy
around lending has really had an impact on some things. There’s been a lot of
talk about how that affects buyers but it’s impacting sellers because in an
effort to cool markets in Toronto and in Vancouver it’s had a downward effect on
price across the country. Pushing that downward to allow buyers to enter but
that’s literally stolen equity from sellers and sellers noticed that. Now I
want to sell my house but I don’t want to sell it for that but unfortunately
that is what the market will bear at this time so that that’s really had an
impact on sellers and sellers have to keep that in mind that there really
needs to be a realistic approach around around price and when the realtor is
giving them information about price it’s that’s the reality of today’s market. The
Board released stats for single-family homes
showing the average price of a single-family home is about $420,000 and condos are about two hundred and $228,000 and
duplexes around $322,000. Now the respective length of time each of those are taking
to sell, single family homes are 64 days the condos are 78 days and the duplexes are also 64 days. Buyers out here now looking at these saying here’s how long
they’re taken to sell and here what average prices are, as a buyer what
should I be thinking. Well I think depending on
you know what kind of buyer you are right number one if you’re looking for
that specific community and that’s just the only place you want to live that’s
one thing you got to talk to your Realtor about but if you’re that buyer in
the market and you’re wanting to get a deal then I think you need to also be
reminded to look at the stuff that’s been sitting a little bit longer. Not
necessary expecting to jump on the brand new listings and get a deal
keep in mind it’s like the seller that’s been sitting there 90 days, 120 days,
they’re probably gonna be a little more motivated to give you that house for a
little bit better price point. So I think that’s really important that you know
that there’s still good quality houses out there and sometimes what it needs to
be is maybe that person was sort of chasing the market and it wasn’t in your
price point before so it’s been sitting well now it’s in your price point you
might get that better deal for that house because they’ve now come down to
what the market value really is. I think for days on market as well
we shouldn’t be like that. Are we scared of days in market. It’s been on the market
for a long time, why? Something must be wrong. It’s not necessarily the case. There’s a buyer for every home but the buyer may not be there today. Somebody
that you maybe your home has been on the market three or four months somebody
wasn’t looking for it that person might be looking for your house tomorrow. I
mean I think on both sides of the equation
buyers and sellers you don’t want to be too afraid of days on market I think
it’s the right thing to look at it’s the right thing to look at. Yeah good point. If I am a home seller and my average days on market now they’re saying the
average for a home selling of 64 days if I am sitting there I’m 90 days what
should I be feeling about that. Well I know you know going back to what Michael
just said the key is number one looking at your home how is it positioned right
and then knowing that maybe that right buyer is in the market right
now and maybe it’s nothing to do with your home but if it is if there was
things you can do because you can you know clean it up a little bit maybe
paint that one green wall that’s maybe not it’s turning people off or whatever
then you take care of those things but if it is sometimes it is. According to the stats if you’re priced really well and let’s say there’s nothing else
selling in your community maybe you just need to wait a little longer until that
right buyer is there, right? I think again too you have to be
cautious with those stats and this is where you need some help from your real
to interpret what’s happening at a local level. Our stats are aggregate that’s the
entire census metropolitan area that’s the City of Edmonton, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain, St Albert, Sherwood Park all that this whole massive area. There
are places where properties you know are still selling today with multiple offers
in a few days and there are properties that are on the market for six months or
more. It’s really important to look at those hyperlocal stats as opposed to
just saying well the aggregate 78 days and I’m 90, what’s the problem. Right
right so taking it on a local level. Knowing how the market has performed in
the past what are your predictions for 2020. I know my feeling is, I was looking
at the unemployment rate and going okay what’s been happening so I know in 2018
we were at about 6.5 percent 2019 at about 7.6 percent. So I really I
see 2020 being very similar unless there’s a lot more jobs created. If more
jobs get created be it oil and gas you know the whole idea is then there’ll be
more people moving but right now I think it’s gonna be very similar to what we’ve
been having. That’s my thought. I agree I think we’re going to be very similar to
2019. I think things are going to stay relatively stable. We’ve been fortunate
stable as it is an okay thing to report. We often say well the market is just
stable, we really want the market to be booming. Stable is OK. Stable means that
buyers are buying, sellers are selling and and there is movement in the
market. We do have to look at what’s going to happen with policy. We’ve been
pushing very hard at a local level, the provincial level and the federal level
with an organized real estate, hasn’t changed a federal policy. To look at
regionalizing the stress test. We’ve got other things that are coming in now the
new home buyer incentive or first-time home buyer incentive from the government which is essentially an equity loan from CMHC. Is that going to have an
impact here? Possibly, we’re at a price point where if people choose to
use that option it may may prove helpful here but I think we can expect things to
be stable and stable is not a bad thing. I think also we need to be cognizant of
what’s happening everywhere. There’s not just a lack of consumer confidence
just in the City of Edmonton or just in Alberta. There’s a lot of things
happening globally and people just generally aren’t sure where things are
gonna land. Well, Sheryl and Michael, thank you so much
for taking the time out to share your thoughts on the stat for November. So
good to see you and Michael thank you thank you all. Happy holidays
guys!

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