Edmonton Real Estate Board | May 2019 Market Stats

Edmonton Real Estate Board | May 2019 Market Stats


– Hi everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well, the numbers are in for
the Edmonton Real Estate Board and I gotta admit, I got some
pretty good news for you. So let’s have a look at what’s going on. I’m also gonna talk about, you probably need right now
to get buyers off the fence, and I’ll show you why. If we look here, January through May, we’re five months into the year obviously, we’re sitting at 800
sales, almost 1,000, 1200, almost 1700, almost 2,000 sales. Typical spring, trending the right way. What about active listings? 7100, 7400, almost 8300. Okay, 9,000 and then up to 9500. So you can see, obviously
sales goes up, listings go up, very normal, but your indicator in terms of the strength of your
market is not just the number of sales, because price
determines strength, right? It’s the months of inventory. So, month of inventory, obviously
you take this number here, active listings, divide
sales and active listings, and it tells your month of inventory. So January, very weak, 8.9. Four to six is balanced,
above six, buyers, below four, sellers. 7.5 we came down. 6.9 we came down. 5.4 and we came down again to 4.8. Now a lot of people will argue this, they’ll say, “Yeah, but
it’s the spring rich, “shouldn’t months of
inventory be coming down?” Not necessarily, because think about it, in the spring, we have more
sales, but what do we also have? We have more listings. More sales, more listings obviously. Your months of inventory
might remain fairly the same over the spring compared to
what it was early in the year. Not always, but can. So when I see months of
inventory going down, what it’s indicating to me is
the market is strengthening. So I’m gonna show you
that in just a moment why buyers should be getting off. Prices, 339, 355, 357, 365, okay and 369, so again, prices really
haven’t moved the much at all. And again why would they, you can see what’s goin’ on
with your months of inventory. So let’s look at this, 2017, you did 1853 sales
in your market, okay. Months of inventory 4.5. 2018 you did 1776. We can see it was a little weaker, look at your months of inventory, 5.6. And then 1981 sales,
which was more than it was two years ago, which is a good sign. I think you would all agree, but your months of inventory is 4.8, which is a little bit
more than it was here, because again we had what? We had less inventory, right
here 9500 opposed to 83. You can see what’s going on, right? But that’s the determining factor in terms of the strength of the
market is right there, but yes we have more sales,
which is good for sales people, because there’s more out there. Prices, 379 in May of 2017. 377, almost the same, okay, 369. Now why would it be down? Because from May of last year, okay, right through to May of this year, our months of inventory has been more in the buyers market area. In other words, above six. And when it’s above six what happens? Prices are going to weaken a little bit. Now here’s what I’m gonna
suggest you should be using, whether you’re talking to a
buyer, talking to a seller. Because right now I
think it’s an opportunity for buyers to get off the fence and get into the market place. Remember, in order taker waits
for them to make a decision a sales person brings great information and evidence to help them make
the best decision they could. Big difference between an
order taker and a sales person. Now, when I see agents right
now that are killing it, I mean they’re havin’
their best year ever, especially coaching members,
they’re ahead of goal, what I’m seeing is these
are great sales people. They understand you can’t
be an order taker anymore. So look at this, 2017, you’ll
notice what was going on with months of inventory. This is all months of inventory. We are at seven. Come down a little bit, okay, and then it sort of balanced
out and it started to go up for the rest of the year
and we ended at 6.3. We started at seven, we ended at 6.3. Now, let’s take a look at 2018. We started up here,
2018, right around seven, and what happened with
our months of inventory? You know, we got here and
it really didn’t move, it was a bit of a flat line
and then all of a sudden it started to rise, and
we ended last year at 8.8. So, very very high. The highest you’ve had in a long time. So now, let’s go forward,
we started here, right, just below nine, at 2019,
but look at the trend. Which way is it now going? See this is like a trend line, isn’t it? So what’s happening, the
first time we’ve actually seen in the last couple years, where
it’s actually trending down, even here it trended down,
and then what happened? Up it went. Look what’s goin’ on here,
it’s actually going down. So that means if I was a buyer,
I’d be thinking about that, and think, well when should I be buying? When that line is trending down like that, if it continues to flatten out or trend down a little bit more, which I think it actually
will, that means I need to get off the fence and I
gotta make a decision, because chances are of
the next little while, which way are prices gonna start to move? They’ll probably start
to creep up a little bit. So think about this, right now you’ve got trend going down, right? Inventory, months of
inventory’s going down. You’ve got the bank, some
of them have actually lowered the rates over
the last little while, I’m goin’, “When should you be buying? “Now.” Right now’s a good time to do it because chances are of
the next little while, you’re probably gonna see prices
start to rise a little bit. I don’t think they’re gonna rise a lot, but I think if you buy today you’re probably gonna get it as low as you’re probably gonna get
it the rest of this year. Anyway, just some food for thought. What about prices, let’s have a look. 352 back in 2012. 2013, 355, 2014, 372. Right now we’re almost where we were then. Do you see, 372, 368. So you can see what happened
up to 383, 382 stayed the same. Okay, down a little, okay down a little, down a little from last year, but I think what we’re gonna start to see, I bet you if we’re
lookin’ at this next year, borrowing rates going up, borrowing any time of economic change, I think what we’re gonna
see is this price here is gonna start to rise, so, anyway. I hope this is helpful to you, I hope you can use this
in your presentations and I will be seeing you again next month. In the meantime, it’s a
beautiful life everybody, make it count.

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