Edmonton Real Estate Board | March 2019 Market Update

Edmonton Real Estate Board | March 2019 Market Update


Hi everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well, the numbers are in for
the Edmonton Real Estate Board. So, here’s what I’m gonna do. The first quarter is now in the books. I’m gonna talk about
January, February, March. Then I’m gonna total the numbers for the whole first quarter, and compare the number of sales done in the first quarter of this year to the first quarter
of the last five years. You can see what’s going on. Then, what I wanna do is, I wanna show you the average sale price of all of the different property types, and what direction they
happen to be moving. So, here’s the first slide,
January, February, March. You can see, did 799 sales,
right, went up to 986, which was up by 23 percent, we’re up by another almost
22 percent to 1200 in March. Active listings, what
happened with their inventory? Well, normally, sales go
up, inventory goes up, for the first three months of the year. Active listings 7100, then
went to 74, up by 4.7 percent, and of course up to
8287, up by 11.7 percent. Now, months of inventory,
supply and demand, prices going up, prices going down, that’s what this is all about. So if you look, active
listings, okay, we had 7092, divide the sales into that, and that gives us 8.9 months of inventory. So what’s happening, we went down to 7.5, even though your listings went up, because your sales were up by 23 percent, your listings were only up by 4.7 percent, which means our inventory
starts to go down. Same thing happened again. You can see sales up by roughly 22, listings up by roughly 12,
this number keeps coming down, which is good, which means if
this number is coming down, what should be happening
with our days in the market? They’re gonna come down as well. Went from 84, 73, down to 66, okay. And your prices, you can see here, you know your 339, 355, 357, you’re not having a lot
of movement right there in terms of prices. So, compare you to what’s
going on across Canada. You can see Toronto has
2.2 months of inventory. Toronto, Ottawa, markets
very, very strong right now. And then the second-best market in Canada right now is Calgary, they’re sitting at five
months of inventory. And then we go to Montreal,
now it was for February, for Montreal and Nova Scotia, because of the time recording
the numbers weren’t out. But Montreal 5.1, and then
of course Edmonton 6.9, Vancouver 7.4, and you can see Nova
Scotia is sitting at 8.8. Now, here’s your first quarter totals. So you can see if I add January,
February, March up, 2015, we did 3489 sales. Then what happened? We went down by 7.3 percent, 3235, then we went back up 3376, by
4.4 percent, and of course, now we start heading down
again 3200, down to about 3000. So you can see, we’re down
by 4.1 percent in ’18, and down by 7.8 percent in ’19. What does it mean? It means no matter how we spin
it, no matter how we cut it, we’ve got less sales. Look at this. Let’s go back five years, 3400,
3200, 3300, 3200, you know, you can see these were
relatively close, a little bit, then now we’ve got the
lowest year than we’ve had in the last five years. So no matter how we spin
this, your pie is smaller, everybody, which means
there’s less sales available. Which means, if you keep
doing the same thing you’ve always been doing in the past, you’re going to have less sales. It can’t be helped, right? So what you gotta do is
you gotta turn it up, you’ve gotta market more,
you’ve gotta prospect more, you gotta make sure your
listings are priced right, you gotta make sure you’re
helping buyers make decisions. Now, here’s something I think
you’ll find interesting. You’re standing right now in
the best quarter of the year, because if we go back to ’18, 21 percent of all the sales
that took place in the year happened in the first quarter. 32 percent happened in the second quarter. 28 percent, third quarter. And only 19 percent. So if we take 19 and 21, that’s 40, that means 60 percent of all the sales will take place in Q2 and Q3, and 32 of 60 will take place in Q2. So you gotta be thinking about, how am I gonna take advantage
of this particular number? Last five years, here’s your prices. Okay, and this is March, year-over-year. 2015 we’re sitting at 378,
43 days in the market, in March of 2015, it went up to 380 roughly
the same, 52 days. 372, we went down a little
bit, but pretty close, I think you would agree, 57
days, 374, almost the same. There’s not a lot of movement here, completely balanced market,
relatively speaking, and then of course, now we’re at the lowest price we’ve had in the last five years, with the highest amount
of days on the market. So, pretty clear what’s happening. What about your micro markets? What about detached, condo apartments, and your duplex and row? Last year, 446 was your average
price, we’re down to 424, down by five percent in detached. But look at this. Condo apartments, 239 to 214,
that’s your average price now, down by 10 percent. And of course, duplex and row, you’re down by five percent, 351 to 334. So what’s sort of the
underlying message here? There’s no question that 2019 has started out a little bit weak. And I think it’s been pretty well the same for many markets across Canada. I think, to some degree, the weather had something to do with that, stress testing had
something to do with that, I get all of that. But here’s what I do know, is I know whatever happened in Q1 is over. So in other words, if you
had a great Q1, great, but don’t get complacent, because over 30 percent of the sales that are gonna take place
this year are gonna take place in the second quarter of this year. If you had a terrible Q1, which I know some people have
told me they did, guess what? It’s over, forget it, don’t
be depressed about it, like in other words, let’s get to work, because we’ve got the
best quarter of the year we’re gonna have this year
sitting in front of us right now. So, think about that. You gotta get out there,
you gotta talk to people, you gotta lead gen more,
you gotta market more, you gotta make sure the
listings are priced right if you want them to sell, and you gotta be much better
at helping buyers understand why they should be making a
decision to buy right now. But don’t give up. Get into the game, and why not do this, why not choose to make this,
the second quarter of 2019, the best quarter you’ve ever had? And remember everybody,
it’s a beautiful life. Make it count.

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