Calgary Real Estate Board | August 2019 Market Stats

Calgary Real Estate Board | August 2019 Market Stats


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well, the numbers are in
for the month of August from the Calgary Real Estate Board. I’m gonna do something a little different as I get to the end of this presentation, I’m gonna compare July
and August of last year to July and August of this year so you can see what
happened year over year over the summer months. And then also I’m gonna
show you how many sales have taken place so far this
year to the end of August. And then I’m also gonna show you what we’re projected to do
for the rest of the year and we’ll be able to compare
that to the last five years. So let’s have a look,
January through August, here’s your sales every single month. You can see here in August we did 1,584 which was down 3.8% over the month before, which was July. Now this makes sense because
quite often you’ll find that your August will be slower
in terms of sales than July. Lot of people on holidays here, kids going back to school,
not a lot of people thinking about buying
and selling real astate. But also look at your inventory, it’s 7,179 listings in July, 7,044 in August. So you can see your inventory was down, sales were down, inventory was down, what happens to months of inventory? Okay, we’re at 4.4, we are at 4.4. So basically you take this listing, divide the sales into the listings, gives your months of inventory. Now we started here at 6.8 in January, that is very much a buyers’ market, prices are going down, you
can see we went down to six just on the edge of a buyers’ market. And then we move into a balance market because a balance market is four to six. So you can see what’s
happened over the summer here. And look at your prices,
you’re in a balance market, prices stay almost the same, 453 and 454. So what happened if we compare July, or I should say August of this year opposed to August of last year? So look at this, you see
here we did 1,491 sales 2018, we did 1,584 August of 2019. Our sales were up by 6.2%. So definitely we’re moving the right way. What about prices? 2018 your average price was 484, you can see here 2019 454. So we look at that year over year, right now our prices are down by 6.1%. Why would that be? Because the first part of
the year was very, very soft as well as the latter part of last year. Now, here’s your numbers right in terms of months of inventory, and this is something that I watch because this determines prices
going up, prices going down, this determines the strength of the market in terms of pricing, not
necessarily number of sales. So months of inventory, you can see here if we
look at August 2019, we had 4.4 months of inventory, now look we were August of 2018, we’re at 5.5 months of inventory. So your market is strengthening, that doesn’t mean there’s more sales, it just means in terms
of supply and demand that your market is strengthening. So look at August of 2017, we had 4.1. But if we look at this,
this is 2019 the white one, look where we’ve started, look where we’ve started the year before. And then, of course we go back
another year we started here. So we started very, very high. And of course, if we look
at the end of last year, look how high we’re right here, and this why your prices have weakened over the end of last year to now. They’ve gone down a little bit because see we’re at
6.2 months of inventory at the end of the year right here. And then of course we
started this year up here but look at where we are at right now, we’re below where we were last year. so that’s all very good information which I think is gonna
lead to a stronger fall. So, if we compare the
summer months, so 2018, July we did 1,547 and 1,491. Look at here, we did
1,646 opposed to 1,547, 1,584 opposed to 1,491. Okay, so you can see that
your sales over the summer are a little bit better. Months of inventory, last
year you did 5.5 in July, you did 5.5 in August, 4.4 and 4.4. So here you had a, you know
your market was at the very end of balance moving towards buyers. Well, here you’re starting to get down where you’re getting closer
to a sellers’ market. Well, we get a little bit lower in this, you’ll see your prices will
actually start to rise. So what’s gonna happen
the rest of the year? Now what I did was I
took the last five years, actually six years, you might find this interesting. So, this here is how many sales
you did for the whole year, so look at this. 2014 you
did over 25,000 sales. Then we went down to 18,800, we had some oil issues here right. Then 17,796, 18,884, and then last year we did 16,145 that was because of interest rates, stress testing and things like that. So what are we projecting this year? Well, if you look in the first, say, January to August in 2018, you did 11,589, we had 11,587. Almost the same amount
of sales took place. Now what we did was we did a calculation and we figured out what
percentage sell okay between January and August
and September and December, 2/3 of the year, 1/3 of the year left. And based on our projections, we’re probably gonna do about 4,563, now I’m gonna be honest, I think it’s gonna be a
little more than that. I think your fall’s gonna
be a little bit stronger and at the end of the year, we’ll probably commit about 16,150 which is slightly ahead of 2018. But I actually think by
the time we’re finished, this could a little bit higher right here. So it’s interesting, you
can see what happened, here we were rockin’ and rollin’, we had some oil issues in here, and then of course as we
get down into these numbers, we had the stress testing, we
had interest rates going up and caused a lot of this
to start going down. But I do believe what’s starting to happen in the Marketing Calgary is it’s starting to recover a little bit, it’s not gonna recover a lot, but I do suspect this fall will be a little bit stronger
than it was last fall. You can see the first 2/3 of the year in terms of sales almost exactly the same. So saying that I think you’re gonna have a little busier fall, I think there’s gonna be
more opportunity out there, I think you’re gonna have more
buyers that are interested. You can see what’s going on
with interest rates right now, if they’re gonna go anywhere, they’re gonna go down a little bit, so I would suggest take
advantage of this fall. You’ve got September, you got
October, you got November, and you got December. You still got, based on projection, 4,563 sales that are gonna take place. So, the question is for you as a salesperson,
who’s gonna get ’em? And I hope it’s you. Anyway I hope this was helpful, and remember everybody, it’s a beautiful life, make it count.

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